5 Year Chart - USD vs INR




# Dollar has very strong support at 44 levels vs Re and recently bounced back sharply after touching that level again.

# Dollar has crossed the resistance zone of 45.5. If dollar stays above this level for sometime, Indian Rupee will see further weakening.

# Fundamentals are also supporting USD. In absence of QE3 the lack of dollar liquidity in the system will increase the demand for dollar and most of the currencies will see weakness against it, including Indian Rupee.

# Strong dollar will be highly positive for IT industry in India, but will be negative for overall Indian economy as we are very large importer of crude oil and hence we have a risk of importing inflation which is already high in India.

# Continuous strength in dollar will also lead to FII outflow and under performance of stock markets in India.




2 comments:

Amit Agarwal said...

The Indian rupee tumbled to a nearly two-year low of Rs 48.01 per US dollar today.

The domestic currency had last closed below this level at Rs 48.10/11 per dollar on September 29, 2009

Amit Agarwal said...

Rupee touched all time low of 56 to USD today. Continuing current account deficit and trade deficit is making the life of our currency miserable. But enough depreciation has occured. Rupee is down more than 25% in one year which seems too stretched.

Our currency should start appreciating anytime soon and has the potential to appreciate 10% from the current level of 56 in 3 - 4 months time frame.

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