NIFTY Technical Analysis: Where is indian stock market headed?




- Nifty hits double top at around 6250 closing level and around 6350 on intraday high level.

- Nifty is in downtrend since Nov 2010 after touching the intraday high level of 6350 and has been making consistent lower tops and lower bottoms since then.

- The technical setup suggest that we are in short term bear market since end of 2010 and hence there is a high probability that we may break 4700 levels on downside in next couple of months.

- InvestorZclub performed a retracement analysis in August 2011 which suggested that Nifty might top out around 5300 to 5400 levels in its pull back rally after hitting 4800 levels.

Related Post: NIFTY Ladder Analysis



3 comments:

Stock Volume Pressure said...

I did not know this information about the stock market bottom at the end of the decade. It is really quite interesting and knowledgeable article.I quite enjoyed reading it.

Amit Agarwal said...

As per expectation the fall has been quite sharp and has broken 4700 Nifty level decisively. Now the bigger question is where will it stop?

Honestly speeking I have no answer to this, but we can look at certain queues to guess when the fall is near its end. The capitulation phase has started and the last leg of capitulation is generally when the defensive names start to correct as investors who have been hiding behind those names will try to book profits.

Hence if by december end we see that HDFC Bank, HDFC, HUL, ITCt, Airtel and other defensives are down 30 - 50% frm their 52 week high, we should be very near to the end of the fall. But that would not mean the sudden rise. We need to spend some time sideways and then we can think of a meaningful rally.

Also by december end lot of foreign investors would do away with their selling to carry forward their losses in their book for next year to offset it against the gains that they make next year.

Hence there is reasonable probability that we might make a bottom by december end.

Hopefully next year would be good for equity investors.

Best of luck
Amit Agarwal
Author: InvestorZclub
Founder: Ben Graham School of Finance www.ben-school.com

jack cruse said...

I found this site very informative because very qualitative stuff is available over here.Thanks.Indian Stock Market

Post a Comment

Do you like my blog?

If you enjoy reading InvestorZclub blog, please help spread the word by sharing this site with your friends.