Impact of 2012 Assembly Election On Stock Markets

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Indian Stock Market witnessed volatile movements in the morning until the clear consensus emerged during noon that SP is going to come in UP with full majority. 

Initially when the markets opened at 9:15 A.M it went up based on a hope that Samajwadi Party might not get full majority and could pull in Congress to form the government in UP. But as the day progressed it became clear that SP would get full majority and won't require congress support. That made the Indian stock Markets very nervous and SENSEX fell more than 550 points from the highs of the day.

So what were the reasons for nervousness and what's the future?

1. With this defeat in UP and Punjab, UPA has become vulnerable to split where TMC and DMK are the major threats which could imbalance the government in centre and, who know, create a situation of mid term polls

2. The budget 2102 is now expected to be more of populist rather than economic. Consensus would suggest the Congress will get more cautious; i.e. effectively hand out more sops resulting in further fiscal slippages and move further away from reform – a mix that will be negative for the Macro.


Ujjwal Chakraborty said...

I believe that this see saw situation will continue till any political party is coming in majority at the center. This coalition format is not working any more as because every individual party is having there individual agenda and not a common agenda of growth. I may be wrong but my opinion is that market is still expecting that Congress should come in the centre with majority. What do you say Amit? Regards Ujjwal Chakraborty

Amit Agarwal said...

I agree Ujjwal, but UPA II has failed to deliver on any front, and has been quite weak in bringing their own party culprits to justice. People are now fed up with this government and it almost certain that UPA III is not going to happen.

Investors will now be skeptical of mid term polls which is expected to keep the markets under check. So a very cautious and light weight approach should be taken for investing in the market...

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