Friday, October 25, 2013

Sensex journey from 21k to 21k

Sensex, the so called barometer of Indian economy, touched 21000 again on 24th Oct 2013 after almost 3 years gap but why the street doesn't seems to be cheering at all? The reason is that Sensex is not the true barometer of Indian economy as it comprises only 30 large Indian companies. 

SMEs are a major part of our economy and they are in terrible state today due to high inflation, low demand and policy uncertainties  Indian economy is in far terrible state than it was during Nov 2010 when sensex was last seen at 21000. INR is at 61.50 today while it was 44.50 three years ago. Fiscal deficit and current account deficit was in far better shape than it is today. 

BSE 500, comprising top 500 listed stocks in India, could be considered as the true health meter of state of the Indian economy which is still down more than 11% as on 24th Oct 2013 from the close of 5th Nov 2010. Until this index goes past 8400 level, true bull market in our economy and stocks will be absent. 

There has been wide divergence in the performance of individual stocks as the market has been very rewarding for high governance and better managed companies while very brutal on badly governed companies. Within Sensex itself some stocks have more than doubled while some have become one third from their prices since 5th Nov 2010. Following is the list of top 5 winners and losers in Sensex since Nov 2010.

Top 5 Winners

Sun Pharma      173%
HUL                   101%
ITC                     93%
TCS                     86%
Tata Motors      52%

Top 5 losers

BHEL                 72%
Jindal Steel       66%
SBI                     51%
Hindalco            51%
Tata Steel         47%

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