Where to invest in 2016?

If Nifty corrects to 7500  - 7600 levels that would be good time to start buying Nifty Bees (Goldman Sachs ETF for Nifty Index listed and traded just like any other stock) as a diversified portfolio of 50 great stocks in India. At 7500 the index would have roughly 7% earnings yield which will also be your fixed deposit yield 1 year forward. With gold & Real estate delivering negative return and thus out of Indian investors portfolio one will not have much choice but to invest in Indian equities. 

Low earnings base of current year, sharp reduction in interest rates, under utilization of factory capacities, govt. spending & reforms, and benign commodity prices will all work together in favor of Indian equities and thus provide floor. A good monsoon next year will add icing on the cake and Nifty could breach 9000 by next Diwali. 

Portfolio Update - Oct 2015

Sold couple of stocks from the portfolio and generated some cash to be deployed once market retraces some of the recent gains.

Are startups in India all about funding?

Thank god I am not running after the startup frenzy aka showing prototypes & raising millions. A business is not just about how much you can raise from VCs and be billionaire on paper but keep burning cash. I believe it's about doing something you are passionate about but makes economic sense. I can sell a 1000 buck product at 500 and show a billion dollar sales in 1 year as long as I ve $500 million funding in my bank and get a 10 times sales valuation of $10 billion making myself notional billionaire. What's that?

I think in India we are repeating of what happened in U.S in 2000 and could cost India dearly. Startup.com (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibuiUXOTE4M) documentary filmed in 1999 is an eye opener. There is nothing like doing something on your own but being a Marwari I understand the importance of starting small, scaling gradually and not do something that requires huge amount of incremental capital to start. I am an old school guy but I like to take home my profits even it's very small and use that to grow the business gradually with small doses of fresh capital. That helps me not go bust even if I do a blunder, which is bound to happen in your early stages of starting a business.

Can Cairn India and Vedanta Merger happen?

Cairn India and Vedanta MergerGiven the current scenario in which metals and mining companies globally are facing brutal sell-off it seems highly unlikely for the Cairn and Vedanta merger to go through. Mining giant Glencore collapsed 30% in a single day on 28th Sep 2015. Vale, another Brazil based iron ore giant, is down more than 80% from it’s 2011 high. Back home we have Hindalco and Vedanta Ltd and both has corrected 65% and 75% respectively from their 2014 high. Cairn India is also a commodity company but the dynamics of crude oil is very different from metals which are recyclable. Beside that China consume 40-50% of most of the global metals produces while crude oil demand is fairly distributed.

Portfolio Update as on Sep 2015

Equity Portfolio Update after three & half months. Some minor adjustments done on existing shares and added a new name where huge value has emerged and has very favorable risk reward ratio. Please check the updated portfolio below to see all the changes:

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