
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Flop Stocks

Historical Statistical Volatility - Calculate and Apply
Historical Volatility (Statistical Volatility) is the annualized standard deviation of past stock price movements. It measures the daily price changes in the stock over the past year. The best part of this indicator is that it can be used to predict the probability of a stock reaching a particular target price and thus can help you in building a position in stock or an option contract.
However it must be noted that while historical volatility can be indicative of future volatility, it can also differ greatly from future volatility, depending on what was driving the price changes during the past period. Major expected news items are more important drivers of big moves in the stock price in the near future.
Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio
## Sold PSB 1000 Shares @ 20 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 18000
## Sold Suryalaxmi Cotton 600 Shares @ 22 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 27000
## Sold Idea 1000 Shares @ 5 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 37000
## Sold 400 Shares of Goldiam at 117 thereby making a profit of 20000
## Earned 2 units of Liquid bees on 100 units of holding worth 2000
## Sold 102 Liquid Bees worth RS. 1,02,000
## Bought Tata Steel 200 shares at 345
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 800 shares at 56
## Bought 500 shares of ONGC at 129
## Total Cash Generated from Selling is Rs 1,87,000
## Total Cash used in purchasing new shares is 178300
Portfolio as on 17th Sep 2019:
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Tata Steel 200 345 69,000
Cash 8,700
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** The Portfolio churn has reduced the networth at cost by roughly 16% since 7th March 2019. Exposure to large global stocks should make up for the losses in coming months. Midcaps and small caps might have bottomed out but lack of confidence, recent memory of bloodbath and poor income growth due to economic turmoil will keep their prices in check and investors are not going to bid up and buy in hurry except selective stories. Hence the exposure has been entirely shifted to undervalued large caps.
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## Sold Balrampur Chini Mills 1000 Shares @ 140 thereby making a profit of 65500
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 400 Shares @ 95 bringing down the average price to 130.
## Cash residual used to purchase Liquid Bees 100 units for Rs. 1,00,000
Portfolio as on 7th March 2019:
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
TMDVR 800 130 104,000
Suryalaxmi 600 57 34,200
Idea 1000 42 42,000
Liquid Bees 100 1000 100,000
Cash 2,189
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Allocating cash further to reduce cost of our holdings after massive panic correction.
## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 75
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 128
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 44
## Bought Idea Cellular 1000 Shares @ 42
## Earned Roughly 3 units of Liquid Bees on 115000 Since April.
## Sold 118 units of Liquid Bees worth 118000.
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
PSB 1000 38 38,000
TMDVR 400 165 66,000
Suryalaxmi 600 57 34,200
Idea 1000 42 42,000
Cash 189
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Allocating cash to buy some beaten down names after decent correction since the portfolio was liquidated.
## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 74
## Bought Punjab Sind Bank 1000 Shares @ 38
## Bought Goldiam International 400 Shares @ 67
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 202
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 70
## Earned Roughly 5 units of Liquid Bees on 273000 till date.
## Sold 163 units of Liquid Bees worth 163000.
Portfolio as on 12th April 2018:
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
PSB 1000 38 38,000
TMDVR 200 202 40,400
Suryalaxmi 300 70 21,000
Liquid Bees 115 1000 115,000
Cash 489
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Liquidating the entire portfolio and sitting on sideline for opportunities after a decent correction.
## Sold Bharti Airtel 150 Shares @ 500
## Sold Majesco 100 Shares @ 524
## Sold Mindtree 100 Shares @ 504
## Sold HGS 50 Shares @ 560
## Sold Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 535
## Sold Coal India 100 Shares @ 275
Portfolio as on 13th Nov 2017:
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Cash 689
Total 2,73,689
The portfolio witnessed 22% appreciation in just 3 months which suggest the kind of euphoria getting built in the stock markets. It was not expected when I picked stocks just 3 months back. This appreciation is not bcoz of my superior stock picking skills but bcoz of benign environment. From portfolio standpoint there are no good opportunities easily available at these levels and hence taking a call on sitting on 100% cash. It seems globally a significant correction is imminent as the markets across the world have been running as if there is no tomorrow and ignoring all the potential risk. Staying invested is mutual funds mandate but retail shareholders have the choice and flexibility to stay on cash when nothing is worth buying.
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Utilizing the sharp fall in Sun Pharma and Coal India to allocate cash in the portfolio.
## Bought Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 460
## Bought Coal India 100 Shares @ 240
Portfolio as on 10th Aug 2017:
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Majesco 100 385 38,500
HGS 50 588 29,400
Sun Pharma 75 460 34,500
Coal India 100 240 24,000
Cash 264
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Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Majesco 100 385 38,500
HGS 50 588 29,400
Cash 58,764
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Considering the headwinds in terms of chaotic demonetization and its likely impact on growth along with GST rollout which is likely to be negatively impacting the GDP in short term, the portfolio is being liquidated to stay in cash for some time.
Also there are many events lined up such as Italian Referendum, U.S rate hike, and the impact of GAAR being applicable from 1st April 2017. FIIs did almost 20000 crores of selling in the month of Nov in equities and similar amount in debt as well. All these things are pointing towards either a correction or a lack luster market for next 5-6 months.
So in my view Fixed Income is relatively safer place to park money at this point of time from the risk-reward perspective.
## Sold Idea cellular 400 shares at 74 resulting in loss of Rs.3200
## Sold Bharti Airtel 50 shares @ 316 resulting in loss of Rs. 1600
## Sold BOI 300 shares at @ 116 resulting in loss of Rs. 5700
## Sold Mastek 200 shares @ 142 resulting in gain of Rs. 2400
## Sold L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 650 resulting in gain of Rs. 1700
## Sold Selan Exploration 100 shares at 193 resulting in gain of Rs. 300
## Sold ITC 100 shares @ 233 resulting in gain of Rs. 700
## Sold Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 207 resulting in gain of Rs. 1200
## Sold Sun Pharma 20 Shares at 720 resulting in gain of Rs. 600
## Bought Liquid Bees 200 at 1000
The above transactions resulted in loss of Rs. 3600 and the net portfolio is having only Liquid Bees worth 2 lakhs and cash Rs. 20,064.
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Liquid Bees 200 1000 2,00,000
Cash 20,064
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## Bought Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 195
## Bought Sun Pharma 20 shares @ 690
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
BOI 300 136 40,800
L&T Infotech 50 616 30,800
Selan Exp 100 190 19,000
ITC 100 226 22,600
Ambuja 100 195 19,500
Sun Pharma 20 690 13,800
Cash 964
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## Bought Mastek Ltd 200 shares @ 130
## Bought L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 616
## Bought 100 Selan exploration 100 shares @ 190
Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
BOI 300 136 40,800
L&T Infotech 50 616 30,800
Selan Exp 100 190 19,000
Cash 56,864
Total 2,23,664
## Mastek Ltd is trading at a valuation equivalent to cash and investment (13% stake in Majesco). The company is focused on IT services now and should do well going forward as Mastek 4.0 matures and clients get results. Its U.S subsidiary Digility has started generating business and the co. is looking to acquire a small to mid sized IT service co. in U.S to reestablish its position in the worlds largest IT market.
## L&T Infotech is probably the cheapest mid sized IT service company in India and is trading at roughly 10 times FY-18 EPS
## Cairn India is replaced by Selan Exploration which is also in to oil production but is a much smaller player compared to cairn India. However the company is cash rich and worst of oil fall seems to be behind the company. With huge 2p reserves the company has potential to generate significant cash flow going forward.
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Stock Qty Avg. Price Investment
Cairn 50 206.55 10,327
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
BOI 300 136 40,800
Couple of points:
1. Market has panicked about Bharti And idea cellular while the major impact of JIO launch will be on Uninor, Videocon, Aircel & Rcom. Excluding Bharti, Idea and Vodafone there are 400 million connection which would get impacted first.
2. JIO is actually protecting ARPU and targatting 500 bucks a month from each user. If it happen it will be a god send opportunity for incumbent operators as their ARPUs also goes up.
3. In 5 years time there will be at max 4 large players with all marginal players consolidated and a very strong industry with all the characteristics of an excellent business like consumption item, significant cash flow, very high entry barrier etc.
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## Cash Level increased by Rs. 16,050 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,54,037
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
BOI 300 136 40,800
Total 2,22,564
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## Cash Level increased by Rs. 63,600 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,37,987
BOI 300 136 40,800
Cash 1,37,987
Note: Market is highly exuberant on the back of foreign liquidity which is making many stocks in the market very expensive. Staying 100% invested in this kind of market leaves no room for margin of safety and hence will wait for correction to dabble into stocks which we like as a business and are comfortable paying the price. Staying invested at current levels might give us a max of 10% return over next one year on index level but the risk on the downside is quite large in case something goes wrong globally or locally.
In terms of local risk, the risk to inflation is slowly beginning to reemerge which will get exaggerated if crude moves to $60 by the end of this year. This is turn will put pressure on our currency which could depreciate to 70+ in a year's time as most of the world is facing deflation and U.S is having less than 2% inflation while we are having more than 6%. Earnings have been largely disappointing for 9th quarter in a row and is expected to stay weak in Q2 as well thereby pulling down the eps estimate once again for FY-2017. With all the good news being priced in the stock prices today, it doesn't make sense to buy the euphoria. As value investor it's always the other way round. We buy the fear and sell the greed.
As on 19th Aug the model portfolio (at market price) has delivered over 115% of absolute return since 21st March 2013 (portfolio start date with Rs. 1 lakh capital) while Nifty has delivered 52% return since then. Since we have already outperformed the market significantly we will wait on the sidelines for sometime before market gives us an opportunity to utilize cash in our portfolio.
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BOI 300 136 40,800
Cash 74,387
## Sold JK Paper 200 shares at 52 realizing gains of Rs.3600 (53% profit in 14 months)
## Added 100 additional shares of BOI @ 84 thereby bringing down the avg cost to 136
## Added Adani Ports 100 shares at 182
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 3600 to Rs. 2,14,329
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 300 136 40,800
Adani Ports 100 182 18,200
Cash 33,337
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## Cash position increased to Rs. 49537
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 9000 to Rs. 2,10,727
Net Portfolio as on 21st April 2016 stands as below:
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 200 162 32,400
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Cash 49,537
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## Bought bank of India 100 shares at Rs. 104 bringing the average cost of holding of 200 shares down to Rs. 162
## Cash position increased to Rs. 18337
Net Portfolio as on 12th Jan 2016 stands as below:
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 200 162 32,400
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Hindalco 300 74 22,200
Cash 18,337
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Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 100 220 22,000
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Sun Pharma 35 717 25,095
Hindalco 300 74 22,200
Cash 1,052
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## Sold Tata Motors 62 shares at 383 thereby generating a profit of around Rs.5000
## Sold Rcom 250 shares at 82 giving the portfolio a gain of 2500 bucks.
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 100 220 22,000
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Cash 44,247
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R Capital 40 460 18,400
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 100 220 22,000
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Tata Motors 62 302.65 18,765
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Note the portfolio is reduce to Rs 1,92,157 from Rs. 1,98,120 last reported due to cumulative losses (Rs. 5959) taken (as shown above) to accommodate Tata Motors in the portfolio.
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## Net holding in Cairn India stands at 430 shares at avg price of 206.5
Net portfolio as on 9th June 2015:
R Capital 50 460 23,000
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 100 220 22,000
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
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Note: The portfolio value at cash is reduced by 4700 bucks due to loss taken on ONGC for buying the Cairn India shares.
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## Net residual cash after the above purchase remains at 650 bucks.
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Update as on 12th March 2015
Booking profits in NTPC & Tata Global and allocating some additional cash to stock.
## Sold NTPC 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.2000
## Sold Tata Global 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.500
## Bought ONGC additional 50 shares at 308 ==> Rs. 15400 (Avg cost of 100 shares now 350 bucks)
## Bought Bank of India 100 shares at 220 ==> Rs. 22000
## Bought JK Paper 200 shares @ 34 ==> Rs.6800
TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 2500 TO RS. 2,02,820
Net portfolio as on 12th March 2015:
Rcom 300 72 21,600
R Capital 50 460 23,000
Exide 100 185 18,500
BOI 100 220 22,000
JK Paper 200 34 6,800
Cash 26,000
*Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.
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Update as on 6th Feb 2015
## Bought RCom 300 Shares @ 72 ==> Rs. 21600
## Sold Idea Cellular 100 shares @ 155 thereby booking gain of Rs.1500. (Basically the stock is replaced by Rcom as it is relatively more attractively priced and is least impacted by the upcoming auction.)
## Sold HCL Tech 20 shares at 1960 thereby booking gains of Rs. 9500 (massive gain of 32% in 1.5 months)
## Bought Reliance Capital 50 shares at 460 ==> Rs. 23000
## Bought Exide Industries 100 shares at 185 ==> Rs. 18500
## Bought NTPC 100 shares @ 140 ==> Rs.14000
TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 11000 TO RS. 2,00,320
Net portfolio as on 6th Feb 2015:
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
Rcom 300 72 21,600
R Capital 50 460 23,000
Exide 100 185 18,500
NTPC 100 140 14,000
Cash 38,200
Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.
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Update as on 15th Dec 2014
Bought Cairn India 60 shares at 240.5 ==> Rs.14,430 (averaging the cost of existing shares by half)
Bought Idea Cellular 100 shares at 140 ==> Rs. 14,000
Bought HCL Tech 20 shares at 1485 ==> Rs. 29,700
Bought Bharti Airtel 50 shares at 348 ==> Rs.17,400
Net portfolio as on 15th Dec 2014:
Idea Cellular 100 140 14,000
HCL tech 20 1485 29,700
Bharti Airtel 50 348 17,400
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Update as on 18th Nov 2014
Sold Reliance Capital 60 shares at 521 resulting in gain of Rs.3600
Sold Rcom 200 shares at 113 resulting in gain of Rs.3400
Sold ITC 50 shares at 368 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Sold Bank Of India 80 shares at 290 resulting in gain of Rs.4000
Sold NTPC 100 shares at 146 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Bought ONGC 50 shares at 392 ==> Rs.19600
Net gain from portfolio selling shares = Rs.13000
Net portfolio as on 18th Nov 2014:
Note: Due to the market being overbought and global situation appearing a bit jittery, keeping a large portion of portfolio in cash (~70%) to be deployed on correction.
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Update as on 14th Oct 2014
ITC 50 348 17,400
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Update as on 7th Oct 2014
Bought 1000 shares of Spice Jet at 12.80 ==> Rs. 12800
Bought Cairn India 30 shares at 293 ==> Rs. 8790 (averaging the cost per share to 301.5)
Reliance Capital 20 shares at 443 ==> Rs. 8860 (averaging the cost per share to 461)
Spicejet 1000 12.8 12,800
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Update as on 25th Sep 2014
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Update as on 2nd Sep 2014
Sold Cairn India 100 shares at 335 yielding a profit of Rs.2300
Sold M&M Fin 100 shares at 282 yielding a profit of Rs.4400
Bought Tata Global 100 shares @ 155 with an investment of Rs. 15500
So portfolio as on 2nd Sep stands as:
Tata Global 100 shares -> 15,500
Cash -> 1,08,520 (Cash as on 25th July) + 61,700 (Cash from selling above stocks) - 15,500 (Cash utilized in buying fresh stock)= Rs. 1,54,720
Total Portfolio value including Cash and stocks at cost = Rs.1,70,220
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Update as on 25th July 2014
- Cairn India 100 @ 312 resulting in a investment of Rs. 31,200
- M&M Financial Services 100 @ 238 with an investment of Rs. 23800
- Cash -> Rs. 1,08,520
Update as on 23rd July 2014
Sold residual stocks (idea and IDFC) in the portfolio at profits leading to a 100% cash position to be deployed on weakness as and when it occurs.
- Idea Cellular sold 150 shares at 147 thereby generating profit of Rs. 450
- IDFC sold 100 shares at 160 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2700
Updated Portfolio as on 23rd July 2014
Cash --> Rs. 1,63,520 (* Started this portfolio on 21st March 2013 with Rs. 1,00,000. Checkout the bottom of this page for datewise buy and sell in the portfolio).
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Update as on 5th June 2014
Booking profits in stocks with good profits as the market is increasingly getting over stretched.
- PSB sold 300 shares at 80.50 thereby generating profit of Rs. 10,050 (Jackpot 71% return)
- M&M Fin sold 50 shares at 315 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450
- Dish TV sold 300 shares at 55 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3000
- NTPC sold 100 shares at 164 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 4100
- Castrol sold 40 shares at 313 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 800
- Indian Hotels sold 150 shares at 95 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450
Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 24,850
Updated Portfolio as on 5th June 2014
Idea Cellular 150 shares at 144 --> Rs. 21,600
IDFC 100 shares at 133 --> Rs. 13,300
Cash --> Rs. 1,25,470
Total Portfolio value at cost = Rs. 1,60,370 (Up > 60% since 21st March 2013)
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Update as on 13th May 2014
- Punjab Sind Bank (PSB) 300 @ 47 resulting in a investment of Rs. 14100
- M&M Financial Services 50 @ 246 with an investment of Rs. 12300
- Dish TV 300 @ 45 with an investment of Rs. 13500
- Castrol India 40 shares @ 293, invstmt = Rs. 11720
- Indian Hotels 150 shares @ 72, invstmnt = Rs. 10800
- Cash = Rs. 25,900
Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio (
As on
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Company
|
Qty
|
Purchase Price
|
Purchase Value
|
Idea
Cellular
|
150
|
144
|
21,600
|
IDFC
|
100
|
133
|
13,300
|
PSB
|
300
|
47
|
14,100
|
M&Mfin
|
50
|
246
|
12,300
|
Dish TV
|
300
|
45
|
13,500
|
Indian
Hotels
|
150
|
72
|
10,800
|
NTPC
|
100
|
123
|
12,300
|
Castrol
|
40
|
293
|
11,720
|
Cash
|
|
|
25,900
|
Total
|
135,520
|
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Update as on 27th March 2014
Utilizing the sharp appreciation in market to encash some of the holdings of the portfolio:
Sold Bharti Airtel 30 shares @ 310 thereby generating a profit of Rs.750
Sold Union Bank 100 shares @ 122 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1200
Sold Dish TV 200 shares @ 52 thereby generating a profit of Rs.600
Sold Bajaj-Auto 8 shares at 2070 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 1320
As on 27th March 2014 day end the model portfolio had following stocks and cash:
Idea Cellular 150 @ 144 -> 21600
IDFC 100 @ 133 -> 13300
Cash = 52160 (Cash as on 21st march 2014) + 48460 (cash due to selling of above stocks)
-> 100620
Net portfolio value at cost -> Rs. 135520
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