Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio





****************************
Update as on 15th Dec 2014
****************************
Market has witnessed 5% correction from the top and some stocks have been battered significantly. Utilizing this opportunity to nibble some quality names.

Bought Cairn India 60 shares at 240.5 ==> Rs.14,430 (averaging the cost of existing shares by half)
Bought Idea Cellular 100 shares at 140 ==> Rs. 14,000
Bought HCL Tech 20 shares at 1485 ==> Rs. 29,700
Bought Bharti Airtel 50 shares at 348 ==> Rs.17,400

Net portfolio as on 15th Dec 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Idea Cellular     100                   140                  14,000
HCL tech            20                     1485               29,700
Bharti Airtel       50                     348                 17,400
Cash                                                                      60,600
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

****************************
Update as on 18th Nov 2014
****************************
Profit booking in some of the stocks that witnessed sharp run-up in prices.

Sold Reliance Capital 60 shares at 521 resulting in gain of Rs.3600
Sold Rcom 200 shares at 113 resulting in gain of Rs.3400
Sold ITC 50 shares at 368 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Sold Bank Of India 80 shares at 290 resulting in gain of Rs.4000
Sold NTPC 100 shares at 146 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Bought ONGC 50 shares at 392 ==> Rs.19600

Net gain from portfolio selling shares = Rs.13000

Net portfolio as on 18th Nov 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Cash                                                                      136,310
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

Note: Due to the market being overbought and global situation appearing a bit jittery, keeping a large portion of portfolio in cash (~70%) to be deployed on correction.

****************************
Update as on 14th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing sharp appreciation in some stocks of the portfolio.

Sold SAIL 400 at 77 resulting in gain of Rs.3600 (around 13% in 15 days)
Sold Spice Jet 1000 shares at 15.3 resulting in gain of Rs. 2500 (around 20% gain in 6 days)

Bought 50 ITC at 348 ==> Rs. 17400

Net portfolio as on 14th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
ITC                      50                      348                17,400
Cash                                                                      44,930
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,76,320

****************************
Update as on 7th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing further correction in select stocks in deploying residual cash in portfolio.

Bought 1000 shares of Spice Jet at 12.80 ==> Rs. 12800
Bought Cairn India 30 shares at 293 ==> Rs. 8790 (averaging the cost per share to 301.5)
Reliance Capital 20 shares at 443 ==> Rs. 8860 (averaging the cost per share to 461)


Net portfolio as on 7th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  60                       301.5              18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Spicejet              1000                  12.8                12,800
Cash                                                                      16,170
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220



****************************
Update as on 25th Sep 2014
****************************
Market presented excellent opportunity to buy some some stocks at attractive valuations. Following are the stocks which were added to the portfolio today.

SAIL 400 @ 68  ==> Rs. 27,200 
Cairn India 30 @ 310  ==> Rs. 9300
Reliance Capital 40 @ 470 ==> Rs. 18800
RCom 200 @ 96 ==> Rs. 19200
Bank Of India 80 @ 250 ==> 20000
NTPC 100 @ 136  ==> Rs.13,600

Net portfolio as on 25th Sep 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Price               Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  30                       310                 9,300
Rel Capital        40                       470                18,800
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Cash                                                                      46,620
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220


****************************
Update as on 2nd Sep 2014
****************************

Sold Cairn India 100 shares at 335 yielding a profit of Rs.2300
Sold M&M Fin 100 shares at 282 yielding a profit of Rs.4400

Bought Tata Global 100 shares @ 155 with an investment of Rs. 15500

So portfolio as on 2nd Sep stands as:

Tata Global 100 shares -> 15,500
Cash -> 1,08,520 (Cash as on 25th July) + 61,700 (Cash from selling above stocks) - 15,500 (Cash utilized in buying fresh stock)= Rs. 1,54,720

Total Portfolio value including Cash and stocks at cost = Rs.1,70,220

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Update as on 25th July 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp fall in Cairn India and M&M Financial Services as they represent reasonable value at price points of 312 and 238 respectively

  • Cairn India 100 @ 312 resulting in a investment of Rs. 31,200
  • M&M Financial Services 100 @ 238 with an investment of Rs. 23800
  • Cash -> Rs. 1,08,520

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Update as on 23rd July 2014
****************************

Sold residual stocks (idea and IDFC) in the portfolio at profits leading to a 100% cash position to be deployed on weakness as and when it occurs.
  • Idea Cellular sold 150 shares at 147 thereby generating profit of Rs. 450
  • IDFC sold 100 shares at 160 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2700
Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 3,150

Updated Portfolio as on 23rd July 2014

Cash --> Rs. 1,63,520 (* Started this portfolio on 21st March 2013 with Rs. 1,00,000. Checkout the bottom of this page for datewise buy and sell in the portfolio).


****************************
Update as on 5th June 2014
****************************

Booking profits in stocks with good profits as the market is increasingly getting over stretched.
  • PSB sold 300 shares at 80.50 thereby generating profit of Rs. 10,050 (Jackpot 71% return)
  • M&M Fin sold 50 shares at 315 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450
  • Dish TV sold 300 shares at 55 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3000
  • NTPC sold 100 shares at 164 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 4100
  • Castrol sold 40 shares at 313 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 800
  • Indian Hotels sold 150 shares at 95 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450

Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 24,850

Updated Portfolio as on 5th June 2014

Idea Cellular 150 shares at 144  --> Rs. 21,600
IDFC 100 shares at 133  --> Rs. 13,300
Cash --> Rs. 1,25,470

Total Portfolio value at cost = Rs. 1,60,370 (Up > 60% since 21st March 2013)

****************************
Update as on 13th May 2014
****************************

With exit polls out and most of them pointing towards stable NDA govt at the center, picking on some stocks which could participate in the post poll rally and are at the same time trading at reasonable valuations so that in case something goes wrong in next couple of months there is no major dent in the prices of such stocks.

  • Punjab Sind Bank (PSB) 300 @ 47 resulting in a investment of Rs. 14100
  • M&M Financial Services 50 @ 246 with an investment of Rs. 12300
  • Dish TV 300 @ 45 with an investment of Rs. 13500
  • Castrol India 40 shares @ 293, invstmt = Rs. 11720
  • Indian Hotels 150 shares @ 72, invstmnt = Rs. 10800
  • Cash = Rs. 25,900
Updated portfolio as on 13th May 2014 is as follows:


Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 13th May 2014 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Idea Cellular
150
144
21,600
IDFC
100
133
13,300
PSB
300
47
14,100
M&Mfin
50
246
12,300
Dish TV
300
45
13,500
Indian Hotels
150
72
10,800
NTPC
100
123
12,300
Castrol
40
293
11,720
Cash


25,900
Total
135,520


****************************
Update as on 27th March 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp appreciation in market to encash some of the holdings of the portfolio:

Sold Bharti Airtel 30 shares @ 310 thereby generating a profit of Rs.750
Sold Union Bank 100 shares @ 122 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1200
Sold Dish TV 200 shares @ 52 thereby generating a profit of Rs.600
Sold Bajaj-Auto 8 shares at 2070 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 1320

As on 27th March 2014 day end the model portfolio had following stocks and cash:

Idea Cellular 150 @ 144  -> 21600
IDFC 100 @ 133               -> 13300
Cash = 52160 (Cash as on 21st march 2014) + 48460 (cash due to selling of above stocks)    
->  100620

Net portfolio value at cost   -> Rs. 135520



******************************************
Update as on 21st Mar 2014 (One year review)
******************************************



**************************
Update as on 6th Mar 2014
**************************
Booking profits in some of the stocks in portfolio because of sharp run up in some of them.

Sold 40 Sobha Developers @ 324 thereby generating a profit of Rs.920
Sold 100 Exide Industries @ 117 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1550
Sold 30 Tata Chemicals @ 298 thereby generating a profit of Rs.600
Sold 40 ONGC @ 303 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1120

The net profit generated by selling the stock in the portfolio was Rs.4190. So the total portfolio value at cost goes to Rs. 131650

Also:

Bought 30 Bharti Airtel @ 285
Bought 100 Union Bank of India @ 110

Bought 200 Dish TV @ 49

So the portfolio as on 6th March stands as below:

Idea Cellular 150 @ 144  -> Rs. 21600
Bharti Airtel 30 @ 285  -> Rs. 8550
Union Bank 100 @ 110  -> Rs. 11000
Dish TV 200 @ 49  -> Rs. 9800
IDFC 100 @ 133  -> Rs. 13300
Bajaj Auto 8 @1905  -> Rs. 15240
Cash Rs. 52160
Total Portfolio at Cost  -> Rs. 131650

Note: We will review our portfolio on 21st March 2014 at market value to asses the performance of this model portfolio in 1 year.

**************************
Update as on 10th Feb 2014
**************************

Utilizing the opportunity of sharp correction in Idea Cellular. Hence

Bought 70 Idea Cellular at Rs.128 taking the total holding to 150 shares at avg cost of 144.



Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 10th Feb 2014 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Idea Cellular
150
144
21,600
Exide Industries
100
101.5
10,150
ONGC
40
275
11,000
Sobha Developers
40
301
12,040
Tata Chemicals
30
278
8,340
IDFC
100
133
13,300
Bajaj Auto
8
1905
15,240
Cash


35,790
Total
127,460



**************************
Update as on 16th Jan 2014
**************************

Booking gains in HDFC, Reliance and Allahabad Bank due to sharp run-up and replacing them with Exide and Idea Cellular.


  • Sold 15 shares of HDFC at 856 leading to a profit of Rs.1110
  • Sold 100 shares of allahabad bank at 96 leading to a profit of Rs.1000
  • Sold 15 shares of Reliance Industries at 890 leading to a profit of Rs.750
  • Bought 80 shares of Ideal Cellular at 158
  • Bought 100 shares of Exide Industries at 101.50
Total Portfolio at cost went up by Rs.2860 to Rs.127,460 as on 16th Jan 2014. Including the freshly added Idea and Exide, the current portfolio stands as below:

Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 16th Jan 2014 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Idea Cellular
80
158
12,640
Exide Industries
100
101.5
10,150
ONGC
40
275
11,000
Sobha Developers
40
301
12,040
Tata Chemicals
30
278
8,340
IDFC
100
133
13,300
Bajaj Auto
8
1905
15,240
Cash


44,750
Total
127,460




**************************
Update as on 30th Dec 2013
**************************

Due to sudden appreciation in the Stock price of Apollo Hospitals and fall in the stock of Bajaj Auto, the former is being replaced by the later. Hence,

Sold 15 Apollo Hospitals at 957 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2525
Bought 8 shares of Bajaj Auto at Rs. 1905

Due to the profits booked in Apollo Hospitals the net portfolio value at cost increased to Rs.1,24,600 from Rs. 1,22,575 since 17th Dec.
Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 30th Dec 2013 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Reliance Indusries
15
840
12,600
ONGC
40
275
11,000
HDFC
15
782
11,730
Sobha Developers
40
301
12,040
Allahabad Bank
100
86
8,600
Tata Chemicals
30
278
8,340
IDFC
100
133
13,300
Bajaj Auto
8
1905
15,240
Cash


31,750
Total
124,600



**************************
Update as on 17th Dec 2013
**************************

Markets went down consistently after making new high about a week back. Some stocks have become quite attractive at current levels and hence utilized some of the cash in the portfolio to buy following stocks. New stocks that were bought today are:

15 shares of HDFC at Rs. 782 -> 13230

40 shares of ONGC at 275 -> 11000

15 shares of Reliance Industries at 840 -> 12600

15 shares of Apollo Hospitals at 822 -> 12330

100 shares of Allahabad Bank at 86  -> 8500

40 shares of sobha developers at 301 -> 12040


Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 17th Dec 2013 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Reliance Indusries
15
840
12,600
ONGC
40
275
11,000
HDFC
15
782
11,730
Sobha Developers
40
301
12,040
Allahabad Bank
100
86
8,600
Apollo Hospitals
15
822
12,330
Tata Chemicals
30
278
8,340
IDFC
100
133
13,300
Cash


32,635
Total
122,575

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Update as on 4th Dec 2013
**************************

JP Associates witnessed sharp rally and market being at the doorstep of major event sold off entire holding in JPA. Also sold Sobha developers holding in the portfolio.


# Sold JP Associates 350 shares at 55.50 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1540
# Sold Sobha Developers 30 shares at 336 thereby generating a profit of around Rs.600


As on 4th Dec 2013 the portfolio had only 2 stocks - IDFC and Tata Chemicals (Quantity and avg acquisition price unchanged from 1st Nov 2013)

Total Portfolio value = Rs. 1,22,575
Total Cash = Rs. 1,00,935
Total Stock worth (At purchase price) = Rs. 21,640


**************************
Update as on 1st Nov 2013
**************************

With Markets at new high booked profits in some of the stocks in portfolio. At these elevated levels we are keeping high proportion of cash in our portfolio.

Sold Allahabad Bank 300 at 95 thereby generating a profit of Rs.2790
Sold BPCL 20 at 360 thereby generating a profit of Rs.80
Sold Dish TV 200 at 54 thereby generating a profit of Rs.400




**************************
Update as on 19th Sep 2013
**************************
Utilizing the sharp rally in the market to book gains in Hindalco and lighten up position in Allahabad bank thereby preserving cash for future deployment. Rest of the stocks are intact and same as of 14th Aug 2013.

Sold Hindalco 150 shares @119 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3795
Sold 50 Allahabad Bank @ 86.50 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 40

Cash Position as on 19th Sep -> 7030 (cash as on 14th Aug) + 17850 (Sold Hindalco) + 4325 (sold Allahabad bank) = Rs. 29205

Note: After today's transaction the total portfolio value at cost including cash stands at Rs.1,17,165

**************************
Update as on 14th Aug 2013
**************************

With better than expected result from Tata Steel the stock went up around 10% today. In short term significant gains have been made in the counter hence profit has been booked in that counter. 

Sold 50 Tata Steel at Rs.254 there by gaining Rs. 2500 on our investment.
Bought Dish TV 100 shares at Rs. 47 thereby bringing down the average cost to Rs. 52
Bought 10 Sobha Developers at Rs.277 thereby bringing down the average cost to Rs. 316
Cash as on 14th Aug 2013 at Rs. 7030


Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 14th Aug 2013 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Hindalco
150
93.7
14,055
IDFC
100
133
13,300
Allahabad Bank
300
85.7
25,710
BPCL
20
356
7,120
Sobha Developers
30
316.33
9,490
JP Associate
350
51.1
17,885
Dish TV
200
52
10,400
Tata Chemicals
30
278
8,340
Cash


7,030
Total
113,330


**************************
Update as on 31st July 2013
**************************
Currency movement has created panic in markets and some stocks have gone to mouth watering valuations. Things should correct itself in couple of months and hence fresh buying is done in some of the existing stocks in the portfolio with the remaining cash.

Bought 100 shares of Allahabad Bank at 67, bringing down the average cost of holding in portfolio to 85.70.

Bought 100 JP Associate at 36 bringing down the average cost of holding in the company to 51.1.

Bought 50 Hindalco Industries at 85 bringing the avg cost down to 93.70.

Bought 50 shares of Tata Steel at 204. (new script included in the portfolio)


Updated Portfolio and average prices as on 31st July 2013






**************************
Update as on 16th July 2013
**************************

Sold 200 shares of Crompton Greaves at 92 ( Rs. 1200 profit realized).
Bought 100 shares of Allahabad Bank at 87.5.
Bought 50 IDFC at 128.
Bought 20 Sobha Developers at 336.

Updated Portfolio and average prices as on 16th July 2013

**************************
Update as on 24th June 2013
**************************

Bought 50 Allahabad Bank @ 97
Bought 100 Crompton Greaves @ 77 
Bought 100 JP Associates @ 53

Bought 100 Dish Tv  @ 58
Bought 30 Tata Chemical @ 278

Updated Portfolio and average prices as on 24th June 2013





**************************
Update as on 20th June 2013
**************************

The swift fall in markets have again made some stock very attractive. Bought following shares on 20th June out of Rs 1,09,630 cash in the portfolio.



Amit Agarwal Portfolio

Residual cash of 63,110 will be utilized to average above companies on further fall. 

**************************
Update as on 15th May 2013
**************************

Again on the back of continuous rally and to protect profits following changes were made to the portfolio.

Sold 75 shares Hindalco at 108 = 8100
Sold JSPL 30 shares at 314 = 9420
Sold Cairn Indian 30 share at 296 = 8880
Sold UCO bank 75 shares at 82 = 6150
Sold Ambuja Cements 50 shares at 186 = 9300
Sold BHEL 30 shares at 191 = 5730

So the Portfolio as on 15th May had only cash of around Rs 1,09,630 and no stocks. The reason for staying on such elevated levels of cash is primarily to pick up value stocks on downfall and protect the portfolio in case market witness swift correction. The strategy now would be to wait for correction as and when happens.

Overall the model portfolio has generated 9.63% return in 50 days time period.
**************************
Update as on 25th April 2013
**************************

Considering the swiftness of the upmove that occured in the month of April and specially to some of our stocks in the model portfolio, I have decided to churn the portfolio a bit in order to protect profits:

Follwoing are the trades that were executed as on 25th April 2013:

Sold Hindalco 75 shares @ 98    ---> an appreciation of 10.1 %                            
Sold Maruti Suzuki 10 shares @ 1590   ---> an appreciation of 21.5 %
Sold Reliance Infra 30 shares @380 ----> an appreciation of 12.5 %
Sold IDFC 75 shares @ 159 ---> an appreciation of 16 %
Sold BPCL 25 @ 415 ---> an appreciation of 13 %
Sold UCO Bank 75 shares @ 68  ---> an appreciation of 21.5 %

Total cash inflow from selling = 62,050

Hence the updated portfolio stands as below:





****************
21st March 2013
****************

With Rs 1,00,000 cash as on 21st March 2013 I would build a model portfolio of following stocks and weightage. The basic strategy behind selecting each stock is valuation and being contrarian. 

The portfolio will be reviewed for shuffling and performance at the end of every quarter and the stocks and their proportion in portfolio might change based on the outlook of individual scripts and overall market. This experiment is being conducted to test the value investing framework over a period of time.



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11 comments:

Vaibhav Patni said...

Cant One go with Allahabad Bank instead of UCO bank from here ?

Amit Agarwal said...

Ya one can pick Allahabad bank instead of UCO Bank as both of them are equally undervalued. Just prefer UCO bank for it's dividend yield and less than half PBV based on FY-15 numbers.

You can read the post on UCO bank here:
UCO Bank Valuation

Pramod Palathinkal said...

How about

1.OIL India instead of cairn India, Oil India has a higher dividend Yield
2. Why such a high weightage for Hindalco, the company has very high debts

Amit Agarwal said...

Oil India, being a public sector unit has it's own problems. While on the other hand Cairn India has sound management and some really good oil assets in Rajasthan. Once the production picks up the stock shoudld do well. Oil India is not a bad a stock to own but being a PSB and regulated and shares huge subsidy burden, I would not go with Oil India.

On the other hand Hindalco, has two big advantages, One it's trading at less than half the FY-14 Book value of and second it is the flagship company of Aditya Birla group. One another reason is that through Novelis it's both forward and backward integrated.

Though the stock has been underperforming, but it continuously appears in my filtration of deep value stocks. The wait period here is at least 1 year.

Chaitanya said...

Do you have any views on TATA Steel and MCX.
Thanks

Ujjwal Chakraborty said...

Dear Amit,
Can the cash part be kept in short term call/money market, rather than keeping it idle and waiting for the time for average? If any average situation, it can be redeemed from there and invested.

Regards
Ujjwal

VINEET said...

you are doing great job Amit, I can see that you do not pick very fast moving stocks buy steady stocks and manage the basket very well. 10% return in 4 months in this kind of choppy and uncertain market is really awesome. Keep up the good work. I am also a value investor since past 2 years but bought lot of stocks in infrastructure for value that are currently at 70% losses. Are infra stocks really value stocks?

Anonymous said...

There are rumors that JP Associates have defaulted on payments, but still you have allocated 18% of your portfolio to it. Are you sure it will bounce back?

Amit Agarwal said...

JP Associates is a pure contra bet on the back of 70% fall since the start of this year. Since the company has high debt issue but an EBIDTA of 7000 crores is quite reasonable and the current situation will force promoters to sell some of it's loss making assets and reduce debts. That will trigger the price to go up. Right now I believe it's more of a technical factor playing out in the fall of stock, may be large liquidation from a particular FII or margin call. Hopefully things would stabilize in coming weeks.

Pankaj said...

IDFC is in your portfolio for very long time and also at higher price. Do you think it's a good stock to own now?

Amit Agarwal said...

Yes IDFC is a proxy for Infra sector revival as they fund all the big infra projects in India. Above that there is a high chance of them getting a bank licence which could be a potential trigger for the stock as well.

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